SỐ 244 | Tháng 7/2026
Công nghệ số, tài chính toàn diện và vai trò chính sách tiền tệ tại các nước đang phát triển
Nguyễn Đức Hiền, Nguyễn Thế Bính, Vương Thị Hương Giang
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Nghiên cứu nhằm phân tích tác động của công nghệ số (DT) đến tài chính toàn diện (FI) tại các nước đang phát triển (DCs), cùng với vai trò điều tiết của chính sách tiền tệ (MP).
Thiết kế nghiên cứu/phương pháp/tiếp cận: Các chỉ số của FI và DT được xây dựng bằng phương pháp phân tích thành phần chính (PCA) cùng các phép kiểm định cần thiết. Mô hình mô-men tổng quát hệ thống (SGMM) được áp dụng cho mục tiêu nghiên cứu với dữ liệu bảng từ 24 DCs trong giai đoạn 2011–2022.
Kết quả nghiên cứu chính: DT thúc đẩy FI tại DCs một cách rõ rệt. Tuy nhiên, lạm phát càng cao làm suy yếu hiệu ứng trên, thậm chí đảo ngược thành tác động ngược chiều khi lạm phát vượt ngưỡng 19,17%.
Giá trị đóng góp mới: Nghiên cứu đầu tiên xác định vai trò điều tiết của môi trường MP đối với tác động của DT đến FI, qua đó cung cấp bằng chứng thực nghiệm về điều kiện MP ổn định là yếu tố quan trọng cần thiết để DT phát huy vai trò thúc đẩy FI tại DCs hiện nay.
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Digital Technology, Financial Inclusion, and the Role of Monetary Policy in Developing Countries
Abstract:
Purpose: The study aims to analyze the impact of Digital Technology (DT) on Financial Inclusion (FI) in Developing Countries (DCs), along with the moderating role of Monetary Policy (MP).
Design/methodology/approach: Indices for FI and DT were constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) alongside requisite diagnostic tests. The System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) was applied for research purposes with panel data from 24 DCs over the period 2011-2022.
Findings: DT significantly promotes FI in DCs. However, rising inflation attenuates this positive influence. Notably, when inflation exceeds a threshold of 19.17%, the impact of DT on FI is reversed, becoming negative.
Originality/value: This research is pioneering in identifying the moderating influence of the MP environment on the impact of DT on FI, thereby providing empirical evidence that a stable MP environment is an essential condition for DT to fully exert its role in promoting FI in DCs at present.