SỐ 244 | Tháng 7/2026
Tác động của phát triển tài chính đến phát thải CO₂ tại một số quốc gia mới nổi: Vai trò điều tiết của chất lượng thể chế
Nguyễn Anh Hiền, Võ Thị Thúy Kiều
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Nghiên cứu nhằm phân tích tác động tương tác giữa phát triển tài chính (PTTC) và chất lượng thể chế (CLTC) đến phát thải CO2 tại 24 quốc gia mới nổi trong giai đoạn 2007–2023.
Thiết kế nghiên cứu/phương pháp/tiếp cận: Nghiên cứu áp dụng mô hình hồi quy phân vị theo phương pháp moment (MMQR) để đánh giá ảnh hưởng của PTTC và CLTC đến phát thải CO2 trên các phân vị khác nhau.
Kết quả nghiên cứu chính: Kết quả thực nghiệm cho thấy PTTC có tác động cùng chiều đến phát thải CO2 ở các phân vị thấp. Tuy nhiên, biến tương tác giữa PTTC và CLTC mang dấu âm và có ý nghĩa thống kê ở hầu hết các phân vị, cho thấy CLTC giúp giảm tác động ngược chiều của PTTC đến môi trường. CLTC, tỷ lệ công nghiệp hóa, dân số và tiêu thụ năng lượng đều có tác động cùng chiều đến phát thải CO2. Trong khi đó, biến Covid-19 có tác động làm giảm phát thải ở phần lớn các phân vị. Kết quả cũng cho thấy tác động của các biến giải thích có sự khác biệt giữa những mức phân vị, phản ánh tính không đồng nhất của phát thải CO2 giữa các quốc gia khác nhau.
Giá trị đóng góp mới: Nghiên cứu đã cung cấp bằng chứng thực nghiệm về vai trò điều tiết của CLTC trong mối quan hệ giữa PTTC và phát thải CO2 tại các quốc gia mới nổi, đồng thời làm rõ sự khác biệt theo những mức phân vị khác nhau.
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The Impact of Financial Development on CO2 Emissions in Selected Emerging Countries: The Moderating Role of Institutional Quality
Abstract:
Purpose: This article aims to examine the interactive effects of financial development and institutional quality on CO2 emissions in 24 emerging countries over the period 2007-2023.
Design/methodology/approach: The study employed the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to assess the impacts of financial development and institutional quality on CO2 emissions across different quantiles.
Findings: Empirical results show that financial development has a positive impact on CO2 emissions at the lower quantiles. However, the interaction term between financial development and institutional quality is negative and statistically significant at most quantiles, indicating that institutional quality helps mitigate the adverse impact of financial development on the environment. Institutional quality, industrialization rate, population, and energy consumption all positively affect CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 variable reduces emissions at the majority of quantiles. The results also show that the impact of the explanatory variables differs across quantile levels, reflecting the heterogeneity of CO2 emissions among different countries.
Originality/value: The article's contribution provides empirical evidence on the moderating role of institutional quality in the relationship between financial development and CO2 emissions in emerging economies, while highlighting heterogeneity in the effects across different quantiles.