SỐ 244 | Tháng 7/2026
Vai trò của phát triển tài chính trong mối quan hệ giữa năng lượng tái tạo và tăng trưởng kinh tế
Phạm Thị Tuyết Trinh, Lê Thị Tuyết Ngân, Lê Nguyễn Hải My, Lê Thị Ngọc Thắm, Nguyễn Ngọc Như Ngân, Ngô Châu Quỳnh Na
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Nghiên cứu phân tích tác động của tiêu thụ năng lượng tái tạo (NLTT) đến tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT), đồng thời xem xét tính phi tuyến của mối quan hệ và vai trò điều tiết của phát triển tài chính (PTTC) trong quá trình chuyển dịch năng lượng.
Thiết kế nghiên cứu/phương pháp/tiếp cận: Nghiên cứu sử dụng dữ liệu bảng của 53 quốc gia trong giai đoạn 2000–2024 và áp dụng phương pháp ước lượng GMM sai phân (DGMM) nhằm xử lý vấn đề nội sinh của mô hình.
Kết quả nghiên cứu chính: Kết quả cho thấy mối quan hệ giữa NLTT và TTKT có dạng phi tuyến hình chữ U. Ở giai đoạn đầu, gia tăng NLTT có thể gây áp lực lên tăng trưởng; tuy nhiên, khi quy mô tiêu thụ đạt một mức nhất định, việc mở rộng NLTT sẽ thúc đẩy tăng trưởng. PTTC góp phần làm giảm tác động bất lợi ban đầu của NLTT, nhưng không thể hiện rõ rệt vai trò điều tiết ở giai đoạn sau.
Giá trị đóng góp mới: Nghiên cứu cung cấp những phát hiện hàm ý rằng hiệu quả tăng trưởng từ chuyển dịch năng lượng phụ thuộc đáng kể vào điều kiện tài chính và cách thức mở rộng quy mô NLTT.
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The Role of Financial Development in the Relationship between Renewable Energy and Economic Growth
Abstract:
Purpose: This study examines the impact of renewable energy consumption (REC) on economic growth, with particular emphasis on the nonlinear nature of the relationship and the moderating role of financial development.
Design/methodology/approach: This paper utilizes panel data from 53 countries over the 2000–2024 period and employs the difference Generalized Method of Moments (DGMM) estimator to address endogeneity issues in the model. The empirical results reveal a U-shaped relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth.
Findings: In the early stage of the energy transition, the expansion of renewable energy consumption may exert downward pressure on economic growth. However, once renewable energy consumption reaches a certain scale, its expansion becomes growth-enhancing. Financial development plays a significant moderating role by mitigating the adverse growth effects of renewable energy consumption in the initial transition phase, although this role becomes less pronounced at higher levels of renewable energy deployment.
Originality/value: The paper provides findings implying that the growth effects of renewable energy are stage-dependent and highlight the importance of financial development in facilitating a smooth and growth-supportive energy transition.