Số 228 | Tháng 3/2025
Vai trò của kiểm soát tham nhũng trong tác động của tín dụng ngân hàng đến đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài: Trường hợp từ phân tích Bayes
Bùi Ngọc Toản
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu của nghiên cứu này nhằm phân tích tác động của tín dụng ngân hàng (TDNH) đến đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) tại các quốc gia ASEAN, kết hợp với việc xem xét vai trò của kiểm soát tham nhũng trong tác động này. Đối với phương pháp ước lượng, tác giả sử dụng phương pháp Bayes để ước lượng mô hình nghiên cứu. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy TDNH có tác động cùng chiều đến FDI, xác suất xảy ra tác động này là 97%. Kiểm soát tham nhũng có vai trò quan trọng trong việc khuếch đại tác động cùng chiều của TDNH đến FDI, với xác suất gần như là chắc chắn. Ngoài ra, kết quả nghiên cứu còn cho thấy FDI bị tác động cùng chiều bởi tăng trưởng kinh tế, nhưng bị tác động ngược chiều bởi tỷ lệ thất nghiệp. Những phát hiện trong nghiên cứu này là cơ sở tin cậy để các quốc gia ASEAN có thể xác định được các chính sách liên quan đến thúc đẩy TDNH gắn với kiểm soát tham nhũng, hướng tới nâng cao khả năng thu hút vốn FDI.
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The Role of Corruption Control in the Impact of Bank Credit on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Bayesian Analysis
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of bank credit on foreign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN countries, with a particular focus on the moderating role of corruption control. The research employs Bayesian estimation methods to analyze the proposed model. The findings reveal that bank credit has a positive effect on FDI, with a 97% probability of this relationship holding true. Moreover, corruption control significantly amplifies the positive impact of bank credit on FDI, with near certainty. In addition, the results show that economic growth positively influences FDI, while the unemployment rate has a negative effect. These findings offer valuable policy implications for ASEAN countries, highlighting the importance of promoting bank credit in conjunction with effective corruption control measures to enhance FDI attraction.