Tạp chí đã xuất bản
2004
ISSN
ISSN 2615-9813
ISSN (số cũ) 1859-3682

Số 230 | Tháng 5/2025

Biến động dòng tiền và cấu trúc nợ của doanh nghiệp tại Việt Nam: Vai trò điều tiết của đại dịch Covid-19

Đỗ Thị Thanh Nhàn

Tóm tắt:

Bài nghiên cứu này xem xét sự ảnh hưởng của biến động dòng tiền đến cấu trúc vốn nợ của các doanh nghiệp Việt Nam được niêm yết trên hai sàn chứng khoán HOSE và HNX từ năm 2012 đến năm 2021 trong bối cảnh đại dịch Covid-19. Bằng cách sử dụng phương pháp bình phương tối thiểu tổng quát khả thi, kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy rằng biến động dòng tiền có sự ảnh hưởng ngược chiều đến cấu trúc vốn nợ nợ của doanh nghiệp trong bối cảnh đại dịch COVID-19. Ngoài ra, bài nghiên cứu còn xem xét các biến động dòng tiền đến cấu trúc vốn nợ đối với các doanh nghiệp có vốn Nhà nước. Kết quả thực nghiệm cho thấy sự biến động về dòng tiền của các doanh nghiệp này có tác động cùng chiều đến cấu trúc vốn nợ nợ.

Tài liệu tham khảo:

  1. Agarwal, A., Bansal, R., & Muduli, S. (2025). Post-pandemic Credit Allocation and Real Economic Activities: Evidence from Indian Firms. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 23(1), 85-103. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-024-00429-3
  2. Algraiti, M. M., & Marulkar, K. V. (2020). Working capital management and ratio analysis at tata steel. Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems, 12(2), 412-433. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5373/JARDCS/V12SP2/SP20201088
  3. Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
  4. Aristei, D., & Gallo, M. (2024). Green management, access to credit, and firms’ vulnerability to the COVID-19 crisis. Small Business Economics, 62(1), 179-211. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-023-00759-1
  5. Askarany, D., Parsaei, M., & Ghanbari, N. (2024). Business Strategy, Short-Term Debt, and Cost Stickiness. Computational Economics, 64(3), 1913-1936. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-024-10649-7
  6. Bach, T., Le, T., & Bui, Y. (2021). Informal short-term borrowings and small and medium enterprises’ performance in a credit crunch: evidence from vietnam. The Journal of Development Studies, 57(8), 1321-1335. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2020.1862798
  7. Bellucci, A., & Gucciardi, G. (2024). A turning point for banking: Unraveling the changing landscape of banking activity in europe since the Covid-19 pandemic. Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, 12(2), 2450002. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S2282717X24500026
  8. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
  9. Checkley, K. (2012). Cash Is Still King. In Cash Is Still King. Taylor and Francis. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203058701
  10. Cowling, M., & Wilson, N. (2024). Does inflation trigger early repayment on Covid-19 UK guaranteed loans? Applied Economics Letters, 31(17), 1651-1655. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2205091
  11. Dasgupta, S., Noe, T. H., & Wang, Z. (2011). Where did all the dollars go? The effect of cash flows on capital and asset structure. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 46(5), 1259-1294. Doi : https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109011000512
  12. Demmou, L., Franco, G., Calligaris, S., & Dlugosch, D. (2022). Liquidity Shortfalls during the COVID-19 Outbreak: Assessment and Policy Responses[Difficultés financières des entreprises pendant l’épidémie de Covid-19 et réponses des politiques publiques: une évaluation]. Economie et Statistique, 2022(532), 47-63. Doi : https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2022.532.2070
  13. Denison, D. V., & Guo, Z. (2015). Local government debt management and budget stabilization. In Local Government Budget Stabilization: Explorations and Evidence (pp. 121-140). Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-15186-1_7
  14. Van Do, T. T., & Duong Phan, T. (2022). Cash-Flow Volatility and Capital Structure Decisions. In International Conference of the Thailand Econometrics Society (pp. 627-636). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97273-8_41
  15. Dong, S., & Jiang, Y. (2025). The role of cash flow volatility in capital structure dynamics. Applied Economics. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2025.2465841
  16. Francis, B., Hasan, I., Song, L., & Waisman, M. (2013). Corporate governance and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from emerging markets. Emerging Markets Review, 15, 57-71. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EMEMAR.2012.08.002
  17. Fulkerson, J., Khieu, H. D., & Ngo, T. (2024). The impact of economic uncertainty on corporate trade credit policy: insights from the COVID-19 pandemic. Applied Economics. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2024.2393445
  18. Gao, W., & Zhu, F. (2015). Information asymmetry and capital structure around the world. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 32, 131-159. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.01.005.
  19. Gillen, M., & Gutter, M. (2015). Cash Flow Management. In Financial Planning Competency Handbook, Second Edition (pp. 73-79). Bloomsbury Publishing Plc. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119642497.ch8.
  20. Goldberg, S. R., Phillips, M. J., & Williams, H. J. (2009). Survive the recession by managing cash. Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance, 21(1), 3-9. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jcaf.20540.
  21. González, V. M. (2015). The financial crisis and corporate debt maturity: The role of banking structure. Journal of Corporate Finance, 35, 310-328. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.10.002.
  22. Guo, H., Legesse, T. S., Tang, J., & Wu, Z. (2021). Financial leverage and firm efficiency: the mediating role of cash holding. Applied Economics, 53(18), 2108-2124. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1855317.
  23. Han, S., & Qiu, J. (2007). Corporate precautionary cash holdings. Journal of Corporate Finance, 13(1), 43-57. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2006.05.002.
  24. Harris, C., & Roark, S. (2019). Cash flow risk and capital structure decisions. Finance Research Letters, 29, 393-397. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.09.005.
  25. He, Z., Suardi, S., Wang, K., & Zhao, Y. (2022). Firms’ COVID-19 Pandemic Exposure and Corporate Cash Policy: Evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 116, 105999. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105999.
  26. Hofmann, E., Templar, S., Rogers, D. S., Choi, T. Y., Leuschner, R., & Korde, R. Y. (2021). Supply chain financing and pandemic: Managing cash flows to keep firms and their value networks healthy. Rutgers Business Review, 6(1), 1-23. https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85104618137&origin=scopusAI.
  27. Homayoun, S., & Homayoun, S. (2015). Agency theory and corporate governance. International Business Management, 9(5), 805-815. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3923/ibm.2015.805.815
  28. Jung, H., & Choi, S. (2024). Debt maturity and the marginal value of cash holdings. Finance Research Letters, 70, 106352. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106352.
  29. Jung, S., & Choi, A. (2024). The value of cash around COVID-19: Insights from business activities. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 74, 102199. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102199.
  30. Karkowska, R. (2023). The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on bank lending: Evidence from European countries. In COVID-19 and European Banking Performance: Resilience, Recovery and Sustainability (pp. 102-116). Taylor and Francis. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003310754-7.
  31. Keefe, M. O. C., & Nguyen, P. H. (2023). The influence of cash flow volatility on firm use of debt of different maturities or zero-debt: International evidence. International Review of Economics and Finance, 86, 684-700. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.03.035
  32. Keefe, M. O. C., & Yaghoubi, M. (2016). The influence of cash flow volatility on capital structure and the use of debt of different maturities. Journal of Corporate Finance, 38, 18-36. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.03.001.
  33. Khan, S. U. (2022). Financing constraints and firm-level responses to the Covid-19 pandemic: International evidence. Research in International Business and Finance, 59, 101545. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101545.
  34. Lartey, T., Danso, A., Uddin, M., & Boateng, A. (2024). Impacts of Disease Pandemics on Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence from US Firms. Review of Corporate Finance, 4(3), 417-475. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1561/114.00000068.
  35. Trang, L. N. T., Nhan, D. T. T., Hao, N. T. N., & Wong, W. K. (2021). Does Bank Liquidity Risk Lead to Bank’s Operational Efficiency? A Study in Vietnam. Advances in Decision Sciences, 25(4). Doi: https://doi.org/10.47654/V25Y2021I4P46-88.
  36. Liu, H. L. (2013). Bank characteristics, firm characteristics and bank loans. International Conference on Management Science and Engineering - Annual Conference Proceedings, 1610-1618. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMSE.2013.6586482.
  37. Luo, H. (2022). COVID-19 and trade credit speed of adjustment. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102541. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102541.
  38. Mahadwartha, P. A., & Ismiyanti, F. (2008). Debt policy, free cash flow hypothesis, and balancing of agency theory through ownership: Evidence from Indonesia. Corporate Ownership and Control, 5(2), 256-263. Doi: https://doi.org/10.22495/cocv5i2c2p2.
  39. Memon, Z. A., Chen, Y., Tauni, M. Z., & Ali, H. (2018). The impact of cash flow volatility on firm leverage and debt maturity structure: evidence from China. China Finance Review International, 8(1), 69-91. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-06-2017-0106.
  40. Naser, A., Matemilola, B. T., & Bany-Ariffin, A. N. (2024). Interaction impact of cash flow volatility and fixed assets on debt maturity structure in MENA and African countries. Cogent Business and Management, 11(1), 2341842. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2341842.
  41. Nguyen, L. D. (2021). Liquidity management and stock price reactions in an economic crisis. In International Econometric Conference of Vietnam (pp. 197-208). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77094-5_18.
  42. Minh, N.H & Vinh, L.H (2022). Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the risk-taking behavior of non-financial firms listed in Vietnam with cash holdings as a moderating variable. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 9(3), 462-470. Doi: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i3.849.
  43. Thach, N. N., My, D. T. H., Thu, P. X., & Van Diep, N. (2022). Crime and the shadow economy: Evidence from BRICS countries. In International Econometric Conference of Vietnam (pp. 269-283). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98689-6_17.
  44. Hong, N. T. X., & Hung, D. N. (2022). Impact of cash flow volatility and debt structure in context of COVID pandemic: A study in Vietnam. Calitatea, 23(186), 262-268. Doi: https://doi.org/10.47750/QAS/23.186.34.
  45. Ostergaard, C., Sasson, A., & Sorensen, B. E. (2020). Cash flow sensitivities and bank-finance shocks in non-listed firms. International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, 11(1), 35-70. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBAAF.2020.104483.
  46. Park, S. Y. (2016). The effect of short-term debt on accrual based earnings management and real earnings management. Journal of Applied Business Research, 32(4), 1287-1300. Doi: https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v32i4.9737
  47. Portes, L. S. V., & Ozenbas, D. (2009). On balance sheets, idiosyncratic risk and aggregate volatility. B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 9(1), 4. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1622.
  48. Ramesh, V. K., & Sampath, A. (2023). Do debt payments beget debt? Evidence from an emerging market. IIMB Management Review, 35(2), 124-136. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2023.05.001.
  49. Shiyyab, F. S., Alzoubi, A. B., & Almajaly, L. A. (2024). Board structure and financial performance: A survey to directors’ perception. In Technological Innovations for Business, Education and Sustainability (pp. 265-282). Emerald Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-106-620241018.
  50. Shubita, M. F. (2023). Cash flow volatility and leverage: Evidence from non-financial Jordanian companies. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 20(2), 286-294. Doi : https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(2).2023.24.
  51. Silva, T. C., de Souza, S. R. S., Guerra, S. M., & Tabak, B. M. (2023). COVID-19 and bank branch lending: The moderating effect of digitalization. Journal of Banking and Finance, 152, 106869. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106869.
  52. Tayem, G., & Altwal, F. (2023). Cash flow volatility and debt maturity structure: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Journal of Governance and Regulation, 12(4), 113-123. Doi: https://doi.org/10.22495/jgrv12i4art11
  53. Vinh, V. X. (2023). Large Shareholders and Information Asymmetry in a Transition Economy - Evidence From Vietnam. Singapore Economic Review, 68(5), 1551-1567. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590819500462.
  54. Ngoc, H. D., Ngoc, T. N., & Le, H. A. (2022). Cash Flow and External Financing in the Covid Pandemic Context and Financial Constraints. Journal of Organizational Behavior Research, 7(2-2022), 109-119. Doi: https://doi.org/10.51847/p5cjIAXsr4.
  55. Zhang, D., & Sogn-Grundvåg, G. (2022). Credit constraints and the severity of Covid-19 impact: Empirical evidence from enterprise surveys. Economic Analysis and Policy, 74, 337-349. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.03.005.


Cash Flow Volatility and Corporate Debt Structure in Vietnam: The Moderating Role of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract:

This study aims to assess the impact of cash flow volatility (CFV) on the debt structure of enterprises in Vietnam, specifically the total debt to total assets (TDA) ratio and the short-term debt to total assets (SDA) ratio. At the same time, the moderating role of the COVID-19 pandemic in this relationship is examined. By using panel data of 408 listed non-financial enterprises in the period 2012–2021 and applying the GMM estimation method, the results show that CFV hurts enterprises' TDA and a positive impact on SDA. This reflects the tendency of enterprises to adjust their debt structure towards a shorter term when cash flows fluctuate. However, in the context of the pandemic, the impact of CFV on debt structure is significantly weakened, indicating that enterprises tend to be more cautious in borrowing to protect their solvency. The research results contribute to clarifying the role of the COVID-19 pandemic context in adjusting corporate debt structures when facing cash flow fluctuations in developing economies like Vietnam.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63065/ajeb.vn.2025.230.112763

Liên hệ
  • Cơ quan chủ quản: Trường Đại học Ngân hàng Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

    Cơ quan xuất bản: Tạp chí Kinh tế và Ngân hàng châu Á

  • Địa chỉ Tòa soạn: 36 Tôn Thất Đạm, Phường Nguyễn Thái Bình, Quận 1, TP.HCM, Việt Nam
  • Điện thoại: 028.38210238|Email: ajeb.vn@hub.edu.vn
  • Giấy phép trang thông tin điện tử: Số 201/GP-TTĐT do Cục Phát thanh, Truyền hình và Thông tin điện tử cấp ngày 11/11/2016
  • Giấy phép Hoạt động Tạp chí in: 388/GP-BTTTT ngày 02/11/2018 in tại Công ty TNHH Một Thành viên In Kinh tế
  • Tổng Biên tập: ..........................................................
Thể lệ tạp chí
Thống kê
  • 1.432 lượt truy cập
  • 16 người trực tuyến
  • 212 Tạp chí đã được phát hành
  • 878 Bài viết được phát hành