Số 227 | Tháng 02/2025
Vai trò của vốn nhân lực trong tăng trưởng công nghệ tại các quốc gia ASEAN
Nguyễn Hoàng Phương, Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Nga
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu này nhằm đánh giá vai trò của vốn nhân lực (VNL) đối với tiến bộ công nghệ tại các quốc gia ASEAN giai đoạn 1971-2019. Bằng việc sử dụng thuật toán Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) trong khuôn khổ cách tiếp cận hiệu ứng hỗn hợp Bayes, kết quả cho thấy nguồn nhân lực trình độ trung học đóng góp nhiều hơn cho tiến bộ công nghệ so với trình độ đại học. Ngoài ra, hoạt động du nhập và hấp thụ công nghệ nước ngoài đóng góp nhiều hơn cho tăng trưởng công nghệ tại các nước ASEAN. Các phát hiện phù hợp với dự báo của mô hình Nelson-Phelps. Dựa trên kết quả nghiên cứu, nhóm tác giả đề xuất bốn nhóm giải pháp nhằm phát triển nhanh VNL góp phần thúc đẩy tiến bộ công nghệ tại Cộng đồng ASEAN.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
- Acemoglu, D. (2009). Introduction to modern economic growth. Princeton University Press.
- Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. McGraw-Hill, New York.
- Benhabib, J., & Spiegel, M. M. (1994). The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data. Journal of Monetary economics, 34(2), 143-173.
- Briggs, W. M. (2023). A partial solution for the replication crisis in economics. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 7(2), 180–190. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEB-03-2023-0027.
- Cheng, C. S., Razak, N. A., and Abdullah, H. B. (2013). Human Capital and Technological Catch-up in the Asian Developing Countries. Proceedings Book of ICEFMO, Handbook on the Economic, Finance and Management Outlooks.
- Correa-Lopez, M. (2008). Revisiting the Nelson-Phelps Hypothesis in a Model of Growth with Quality-Improving Innovations. University of Manchester, UK.
- Crafts, N. and O’Rourke K. H. (2014). Twentieth century growth. Handbook of economic growth, 2, 263-346.
- D’Aloia, F., & Gugler, P. (2024). Impact of covid-19 on the economic growth of ASEAN countries: Convergence or divergence?. International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, 19(2), 83-95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42943-024-00098-2
- Durlauf, S., Johnson, P.and Temple, J. (2005). Growth econometrics. In P. Aghion and S.N. Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
- Griffith, R., Redding, S., & Reenen, J. V. (2004). Mapping the two faces of R&D: Productivity growth in a panel of OECD industries. Review of economics and statistics, 86(4), 883-895. https://doi.org/10.1162/0034653043125194
- Hussin, F., & Saidin, N. (2012). Economic growth in ASEAN-4 countries: a panel data analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(9), 119-129. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v4n9p119
- Islam, N. (1995). Growth empirics: a panel data approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 1127-1170. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946651
- Madsen, J. B., Islam, M. R., & Ang, J. B. (2010). Catching up to the technology frontier: the dichotomy between innovation and imitation. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 43(4), 1389-1411.
- Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2010.01618.x
- Munir, Q., Lean, H. H., & Smyth, R. (2020). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A cross-sectional dependence approach. Energy Economics, 85, 104571. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104571
- Nelson, R. R., & Phelps, E. S. (1966). Investment in humans, technological diffusion, and economic growth. The American economic review, 56(1/2), 69-75.
- Nga, N. T. N., & Thach, N. N. (2024). Reexamining the economic globalization-welfare state nexus: a Bayesian mixed approach to linear and non-linear dynamics. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 2416987. https://10.1080/23322039.2024.2416987
- Nguyễn Ngọc Thạch (2022). Tăng trưởng kinh tế: nguồn gốc, yếu tố và xu hướng. (Sắp xuất bản).
- Nguyen, T. V., & Pham, L. T. (2011). Scientific output and its relationship to knowledge economy: an analysis of ASEAN countries. Scientometrics, 89(1), 107–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-011-0446-2
- Maneejuk, P., Yamaka, W. (2021). The Impact of Higher Education on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries. Sustainability, 13, 520. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020520
- Penguin dictionary of economics (1998). Biên soạn bởi Bannock, Graham; Baxter, R. E. (Ron Eric); Davis, Evan.
- Penn World Table (PWT). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/
- Phyoe, E. E. (2015). The relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth of selected ASEAN countries. International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, 1(4), 132-146.
- Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of political Economy, 98(5), S71-S102.
- Schultz, T. (1961). Investment in Human Capital. American Economic Review, 51(1), 1-17.
- Thach, N. N. (2023). Applying Monte Carlo Simulations to a Small Data Analysis of a Case of Economic Growth in COVID-19 Times. Sage Open, 13(2), 21582440231181540. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231181540
- Thach, N. N. (2025). Which, renewable or non-renewable energy, is more vital for the economic growth of OECD countries? A Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Heliyon, 11(3), e42259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e42259.
- Vandenbussche, J., Aghion, P., & Meghir, C. (2006). Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital. Journal of economic growth, 11, 97-127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-9002-y
- World Bank (2006). Where is the Wealth of Nations? Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
- World Development Indicators (WDI). https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/
- Young, A. (1998). Growth without scale effects. Journal of political economy, 106(1), 41-63.
- Yildirim E. (2022). Export and economic growth: The causality test for ASEAN countries. Bachelor thesis, Karlstad University.
Role of Human Capital in Technology Growth in ASEAN Countries
Abstract:
The study aims to assess the role of human capital in technological advancement in ASEAN countries during the period 1971–2019. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm within a Bayesian mixed-effects framework, the results indicate that secondary-level human capital contributes more to technological progress than tertiary-level human capital. Additionally, the adoption and absorption of foreign technology play a more significant role in driving technological growth in ASEAN countries. These findings align with the predictions of the Nelson-Phelps model. Based on the research results, the author proposes four solutions to rapidly develop.