Số 227 | Tháng 02/2025
Tác động của tài chính toàn diện kỹ thuật số đến ổn định ngân hàng trong bối cảnh phát triển tài chính: Bằng chứng quốc tế
Tô Thị Hồng Gấm
Tóm tắt:
Bài viết nghiên cứu tác động của tài chính toàn diện (TCTD) kỹ thuật số đến ổn định ngân hàng trong bối cảnh phát triển tài chính. Dữ liệu nghiên cứu được thu thập tại 58 quốc gia trên thế giới giai đoạn 2011–2022. Kết quả ước lượng mô hình nghiên cứu bằng phương pháp Bayes cho thấy tác động của TCTD kỹ thuật số đến ổn định ngân hàng (được đo bằng điểm Z ngân hàng) là ngược chiều. Tuy nhiên, TCTD kỹ thuật số trong bối cảnh hệ thống tài chính phát triển thì mang lại tác động tích cực cho ổn định của ngành ngân hàng. Các biến số khác mang lại sự ổn định của ngân hàng bao gồm phát triển tài chính, tăng trưởng kinh tế, và chất lượng thể chế. Ngược lại, các chỉ số tập trung ngân hàng, lạm phát, đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài và thất nghiệp lại làm giảm sự ổn định ngân hàng. Từ những kết quả này, tác giả đã đề xuất một số hàm ý chính sách nhằm tăng sự ổn định ngân hàng ở các quốc gia trong mẫu nghiên cứu.
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The Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion on Bank Stability in the Context of Financial Development: International Evidence
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of digital financial inclusion on bank stability within the broader context of financial development. The analysis is based on panel data from 58 countries covering the period from 2011 to 2022. Employing a Bayesian estimation approach, the results indicate that digital financial inclusion alone negatively affects bank stability, as measured by the Z-score. However, when considered alongside financial development, digital financial inclusion contributes positively to the stability of the banking sector. Additionally, financial development, economic growth, and institutional quality are found to enhance bank stability. In contrast, higher levels of bank concentration, inflation, foreign direct investment, and unemployment are associated with reduced bank stability. Based on these findings, the study offers policy recommendations aimed at strengthening bank stability in the countries examined.