Số 233 | Tháng 8/2025
Vai trò của độ tin cậy ngân sách đối với sự phát triển kinh tế - xã hội tại Việt Nam: Nghiên cứu trên phạm vi tỉnh Long An
Trần Thị Kim Oanh, Nguyễn Việt Hồng Anh
Tóm tắt:
Bài viết đánh giá ảnh hưởng của độ tin cậy ngân sách (ĐTCNS) đến sự phát triển kinh tế-xã hội (KT-XH) tại Long An bằng phương pháp hồi quy BVAR trên bộ dữ liệu thuộc giai đoạn nghiên cứu 2018–2024. ĐTCNS được tác giả tiếp cận theo khuôn khổ của chương trình chi tiêu công và trách nhiệm giải trình tài chính (Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability – PEFA). Đồng thời, sự phát triển KT-XH tại Long An được đo lường thông qua bộ chỉ số phản ánh ba khía cạnh: kinh tế, xã hội và môi trường. Kết quả nghiên cứu khẳng định ĐTCNS càng cao càng tạo động lực góp phần phát triển KT-XH nhờ vào hiệu quả quản lý tài chính công (QLTCC); tuy nhiên chất lượng môi trường lại bị ảnh hưởng ngược chiều. Qua đó, bài viết đề xuất một số giải pháp nâng cao ĐTCNS góp phần phát triển KT-XH tại tỉnh Long An.
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The Impact of Budget Reliability on Socio-Economic Development in Vietnam: A Study in Long An Province
Abstract:
The paper evaluates the influence of budget reliability on socio-economic development in Long An, employing the BVAR regression approach on data from the research period 2018 –2024. The author examines budget reliability within the context of the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Program (PEFA). Simultaneously, socio-economic progress in Long An is assessed using a set of metrics that reflect three dimensions: economic, social, and environmental. The research findings indicate that increased budget stability enhances incentives to contribute to economic and social growth due to the efficacy of public financial management; yet it adversely impacts environmental quality. Consequently, the article suggests several methods to enhance budget predictability to foster socio-economic development in Long An province.