Số 233 | Tháng 8/2025
Tác động của chất lượng thể chế và bất định chính sách kinh tế toàn cầu đến tăng trưởng tín dụng ngân hàng
Hồ Văn Tài, Nguyễn Thế Bính
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu này phân tích tác động của chất lượng thể chế (CLTC) và bất định chính sách kinh tế toàn cầu (GEPU) đến tăng trưởng tín dụng ngân hàng (TTTDNH) trong bối cảnh kinh tế biến động. Dữ liệu bảng từ 96 hệ thống ngân hàng toàn cầu giai đoạn 2008-2023 được phân tích bằng phương pháp OLS, FEM, REM, FGLS và GMM. CLTC được phản ánh qua sáu chỉ số VOICE, POLITICAL, REQUA, GOVEF, LAW và COR, còn GEPU đo lường mức độ bất định chính sách kinh tế toàn cầu. Kết quả cho thấy cả CLTC qua sáu chỉ số chính và GEPU đều có tác động cùng chiều tới TTTDNH, bổ sung bằng chứng thực nghiệm, củng cố và mở rộng lý thuyết về các yếu tố chi phối TTTDNH. Về thực tiễn, kết quả hỗ trợ nhà hoạch định chính sách và ngân hàng xây dựng chiến lược tín dụng phù hợp với điều kiện thể chế và môi trường toàn cầu, nâng cao hiệu quả hoạt động tín dụng ngân hàng (TDNH) trong bối cảnh bất định và thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững. Hạn chế nghiên cứu là chưa phân tích sâu theo loại hình ngân hàng hoặc đặc điểm khu vực và đây là gợi ý nghiên cứu tương lai.
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The Impact of Institutional Quality and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Credit Growth
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of institutional quality and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) on bank credit growth in a volatile economic environment. Panel data from 96 global banking systems for the period 2008 - 2023 are analysed using OLS, FEM, REM, FGLS, and GMM methods. Institutional quality is represented by six indicators: VOICE, POLITICAL, REQUA, GOVEF, LAW, and COR, while GEPU measures the degree of global economic policy uncertainty. The findings indicate that both institutional quality, through its six key indicators, and GEPU exert a positive influence on bank credit growth, providing additional empirical evidence that reinforces and extends the theoretical framework on the determinants of bank credit growth. From a practical perspective, the results assist policymakers and banks in developing credit strategies aligned with institutional conditions and the global environment, thereby improving the effectiveness of banking credit operations in uncertain contexts and fostering sustainable economic growth. A limitation of the study is that it does not conduct an in-depth analysis by bank type or regional characteristics, suggesting directions for future research.