Số 231 | Tháng 6/2025
Trump tweets về cuộc chiến thương mại Mỹ - Trung và phản ứng của thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam
Nguyễn Phúc Lam Thy, Trần Nam Quốc, Tiết Tòng Tuyền
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu này nhằm phân tích tác động của tâm lý bất ổn chính trị về khả năng chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ-Trung lên thị trường chứng khoán (TTCK) Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2016–2021. Trong đó, bất ổn chính trị được đo lường bằng biến đại diện là các dòng tweet của Trump về chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ-Trung. Bài viết sử dụng phương pháp nghiên cứu sự kiện trên dữ liệu giá cổ phiếu từ một số doanh nghiệp trong VN30, nhóm tác giả chỉ ra rằng sự xuất hiện từ những dòng tweet này có liên quan đến biến động tỷ suất lợi nhuận của cổ phiếu các công ty. Các dòng tweet từ Trump đã tạo ra tâm lý bất ổn chính trị về hợp tác quốc tế, làm suy yếu triển vọng tích cực của nhà đầu tư, từ đó có ảnh hưởng đến hoạt động TTCK ở Việt Nam. Kết quả nghiên cứu thu hút sự quan tâm của nhiều bên tham gia thị trường muốn phòng ngừa rủi ro chính trị và nhà hoạch định chính sách hướng đến ổn định thị trường tài chính.
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Trump’s Tweets about US – China Trade War and Vietnamese Stock Market’s Response
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of political uncertainty induced by the US-China trade war on the Vietnamese stock market from 2016 to 2021. We use Trump’s tweets about US-China trade war as the proxy for political uncertainty. By employing the event study method on stock price data of companies in the VN30, we find that the emergence of trade-war related tweets is linked with negative abnormal returns and enhanced trading activities. The results suggest that Trump’s tweets generating political uncertainty about international collaboration and undermining investors’ positive outlooks. Our findings are of interest to a wide range of market participants who seek to hedge against political risks and policy makers who seek to stabilize financial markets.