SỐ 242 | Tháng 5/2026
Tác động của tài chính toàn diện đến tăng trưởng kinh tế – Bằng chứng từ mô hình ngưỡng
Nguyễn Đặng Hải Yến
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Nghiên cứu phân tích tác động phi tuyến của tài chính toàn diện (TCTD) đến tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT) tại 32 quốc gia châu Á giai đoạn 2004–2024.
Thiết kế nghiên cứu/phương pháp/tiếp cận: Chỉ số TCTD được xây dựng bằng phương pháp phân tích thành phần chính (PCA), phản ánh khả năng tiếp cận, mức độ sử dụng và sự sẵn có của dịch vụ tài chính. Nghiên cứu sử dụng mô hình hồi quy bậc hai kết hợp với mô hình ngưỡng dữ liệu bảng để kiểm định mối quan hệ phi tuyến và xử lý nội sinh.
Kết quả nghiên cứu chính: Kết quả cho thấy tồn tại mối quan hệ hình chữ U giữa TCTD và TTKT, với ngưỡng ước lượng là 1,36. Ở mức thấp, TCTD có thể kìm hãm tăng trưởng do phân bổ nguồn lực kém hiệu quả; khi vượt ngưỡng, tác động chuyển sang cùng chiều. Hiệu ứng phi tuyến chủ yếu đến từ khả năng tiếp cận dịch vụ tài chính và huy động tiền gửi.
Giá trị đóng góp mới: Nghiên cứu cung cấp bằng chứng thực nghiệm về tác động phi tuyến trong bối cảnh châu Á và nhấn mạnh vai trò của mức độ phát triển tài chính trong việc khai thác lợi ích của TCTD.
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The Impact of Financial Inclusion on Economic Growth - Evidence from the Threshold Model
Abstract:
Purpose: This study examines the nonlinear impact of financial inclusion on economic growth across 32 Asian countries from 2004 to 2024.
Design/methodology/approach: A composite financial inclusion index is constructed using PCA, capturing access, usage, and availability of financial services. A quadratic model combined with panel threshold regression is employed to test nonlinearity and address endogeneity.
Findings: The results reveal a U-shaped relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth, with a threshold of 1.36. Below this level, financial inclusion hinders growth, while above it, the effect becomes positive. Nonlinear effects are mainly driven by financial access and deposit mobilization.
Originality/value: The study provides new evidence on nonlinear effects in the Asian context and highlights the role of financial development in enhancing the benefits of financial inclusion.