Số 234 | Tháng 9/2025
Tác động của đầu tư cho trí tuệ nhân tạo đến doanh thu thuế: Một ước tính Bayes cho các nước G7
Nguyễn Văn Điệp
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Nghiên cứu này khám phá ảnh hưởng của đầu tư cho AI (ĐTAI) đến việc huy động nguồn thu từ thuế thuộc chính phủ ở các quốc gia. Nguyên nhân là vì tầm quan trọng ngày càng tăng của nền kinh tế tri thức trong thế kỷ 21 và tiềm năng từ trí tuệ nhân tạo (AI).
Thiết kế nghiên cứu/phương pháp/tiếp cận: Nghiên cứu sử dụng mẫu gồm bảy quốc gia thuộc nhóm G7 trong khung thời gian 2012–2020 và hồi quy Bayes cho dữ liệu bảng. Bài báo này đưa ra giả thuyết rằng sự đa dạng trong mức độ ĐTAI góp phần giải thích sự khác biệt về kết quả thu thuế. Do đó, ĐTAI dự kiến có ảnh hưởng lên doanh thu thuế (DTT).
Kết quả nghiên cứu chính: Phát hiện quan trọng của bài viết là mức độ ĐTAI càng cao thì càng huy động được nhiều thuế. Phát hiện này vẫn tồn tại sau một số phân tích độ mạnh.
Giá trị đóng góp mới: Khó khăn trong việc thu thuế được xem là rào cản đối với phát triển kinh tế. Việc tài trợ cho phát triển đòi hỏi phải huy động nguồn tài chính lớn. Mặc dù đã có những tiến bộ trong việc nghiên cứu DTT và các yếu tố tiềm năng có ảnh hưởng lên nó, nhưng vai trò của ĐTAI đối với DTT vẫn là một chủ đề chưa được khám phá rộng rãi. Những kết quả này đòi hỏi chính phủ các nước G7 cần khuyến khích đầu tư hơn nữa cho AI nhằm cải thiện thành quả thu thuế.
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The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Investment on Tax Revenues: A Bayesian Estimation for the G7 Countries
Abstract:
Purpose: Given the growing importance of the knowledge economy in the 21st century and the growing potential of artificial intelligence (AI), this study explores the impact of AI investment on government tax revenue mobilisation across countries.
Design/methodology/approach: Using a sample of seven G7 countries over the period 2012–2020 and Bayesian regression for panel data, this paper hypothesises that differences in the level of AI investment explain differences in tax collection. Therefore, AI investment is expected to have an impact on tax revenue.
Findings: The key finding of the paper is that higher levels of AI investment are associated with higher tax mobilisation. This finding persists after several robustness analyses.
Originality/value: Difficulty in tax collection is considered a barrier to economic development. Financing development requires mobilising large financial resources. While significant progress has been made in understanding the role of tax revenue and the potential factors that influence it, the role of AI investment in tax revenue remains a largely unexplored topic. These results suggest that G7 governments should encourage further investment in AI to enhance tax performance.