Số 234 | Tháng 9/2025
Mối quan hệ giữa lạm phát và thất nghiệp: Bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại Việt Nam
Lê Thông Tiến, Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Diễm, Phan Thị Phương Linh
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Nghiên cứu này nhằm phân tích mối quan hệ (MQH) giữa lạm phát và thất nghiệp (LP-TN) thực tế tại Việt Nam trong giai đoạn từ quý 1/2012–1/2025.
Thiết kế nghiên cứu/phương pháp/tiếp cận: Nghiên cứu sử dụng mô hình SVAR với ràng buộc dài hạn và phân tích hàm phản ứng đẩy cấu trúc tích luỹ để xem xét sự tác động giữa các cú sốc lạm phát, thất nghiệp thực tế và khoảng cách sản lượng (KCSL) trong dài hạn. Biến giả đại diện cho chiến tranh Nga – Ukraine và đại dịch Covid-19 được sử dụng để kiểm soát các ảnh hưởng ngoại sinh.
Kết quả nghiên cứu chính: Kết quả cho thấy trong ngắn hạn, lạm phát không chịu ảnh hưởng tức thời bởi thất nghiệp thực tế, nhưng lại có tác động ngược chiều đến thất nghiệp. Trong dài hạn, thất nghiệp có tác động ngược chiều đến lạm phát, trong khi tác động của lạm phát đến thất nghiệp bị triệt tiêu.
Giá trị đóng góp mới: Nghiên cứu đã bổ sung bằng chứng thực nghiệm về sự đánh đổi giữa LP-TN thực tế theo đường cong Phillips chỉ diễn ra một phía, lạm phát có tác động ngược chiều đến thất nghiệp trong ngắn hạn, trong khi thất nghiệp có tác động ngược chiều đến lạm phát ở dài hạn.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
- Anas, I., A., Mirzalina, Z., & Yusuf, J. (2024). Analysis of institutional factors, inflation, and unemployment on the economic growth of ASEAN countries. In 8th International Conference on Accounting, Management, and Economics (ICAME 2023) (pp. 529-541). Atlantis Press.
- Anastasia, P. M. (2024). Dynamics of Inflation and Unemployment in Indonesia: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Approach. Tamansiswa Accounting Journal International, 77-90. From https://jurnal.stiekn.ac.id/index.php/taji/article/view/591.
- Batool, I., Rehan, A., & Arshad, Q. (2025). Impact of Inflation, Information, Communication and Technology on Unemployment: An Analysis from Developing Countries. International Journal of Advanced Social Studies, 5(1), 14-21. https://doi.org/10.70843/ijass.2025.05103.
- Blanchard, O. J., & Quah, D. (1989). The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances. American Economic Review, (4), 655-673. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2737.
- Crump, R. K., Eusepi, S., Giannoni, M., & Şahin, A. (2024). The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times. Journal of Monetary Economics, 145, 103580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103580.
- Dang, D., & Vu, B. (2018). Testing the Phillips curve in Vietnam. Science and Technology Development Journal, 19, 52-60. https://doi.org/10.32508/stdj.v19i1.527.
- Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17. From http://www.jstor.org/stable/1831652.
- Fumitaka, F. (2007). Does the “Phillips Curve” Really Exist? New Empirical Evidence from Malaysia. Economics Bulletin, 5(16), 1-14. From https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-07e20006.html.
- Gelain, P., & Lopez, P. (2024). Understanding Post-Pandemic Surprises in Inflation and the Labor Market. Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202411.
- Goldstein, M. (1972). The Trade-Off Between Inflation and Unemployment: A Survey of the Econometric Evidence for Selected Countries. IMF Staff Papers, 19(3), 647-698. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866420.
- Haschka, R. E. (2024). Examining the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the U.S.: Why has the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakened? Research in Economics, 78(4), 100987. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2024.100987.
- Hien, M. T., & Linh, L. T. (2024). Analysis of factors affecting inflation in Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of International Economics and Management, 24(2), 132-144. https://doi.org/10.38203/jiem.024.2.0090.
- Hoa, N. X., & Seema, N. (2021). What Drives Persistently High Inflationary Pressures In Vietnam? Some Evidence from The New Keynesian Curve Framework. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 24(4), 517-540. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v24i4.
- Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682.
- Lachezar, P., & Aleksandar, V. (2025). Analysing the Relationship between Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, and the Effect they have on Gross Domestic Product in the United Kingdom (1990-2023). Journal of Economics and Econometrics, (2), 69-105. From https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311748.
- Loan, V. T. K., & Thao, N. T. T. (2025). The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment: Policy Implications for Vietnam. Journal of Development and Integration, 81, 58-65. https://doi.org/10.61602/jdi.2025.81.07.
- Lucas, R. E. (1973). Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs. The American Economic Review, 63(3), 326-334. From http://www.jstor.org/stable/1914364 .
- Mai, T. H., & Le, T. L. (2024). Analysis of factors affecting inflation in Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of International Economics and Management, 24(2), 132-144. https://doi.org/10.38203/jiem.024.2.0090.
- Mankiw, N. G. (2006). The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(4), 29-46. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.4.29.
- Melkamu, W., Benedict, H. P. M., & Deresa T. (2025). An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Ethiopia. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 14(3), 128-139. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20251403.16.
- Mohammad, K., Nasser, W., & Mourad, A. (2018). An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). International Journal of Economics and Finance, 10, 133-141. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n2p133.
- Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. In Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association. Alexandria, VA. American Statistical Association, 89-104.
- Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica, 25(100), 283-299. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.1958.tb00003.x.
- Reina, A. M. M. (2025). The relationship between inflation and unemployment: Empirical evidence for Colombia (2007–2024). Forum for Economic and Financial Studies, 3(3), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.59400/fefs3225.
- Ruiz, M. E. (2022). How Much Inflation and Unemployment Worldwide Can Generate the Russo-Ukrainian War Crisis? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4131388.
- Schreiber, S., & Wolters, J. (2007). The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent? Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(2), 355-367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.08.003.
- Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017.
- Suparta, I. M. (2025). Impact of Inflation on Unemployment and Poverty in Indonesia. International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research, 9(06), 349-360. https://doi.org/10.51505/IJEBMR.2025.9619.
- Tung, L. T., Bich, P. T., Anh, L. T. P., & Khanh, N. B. (2023). The Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in Vietnam: Does the Phillips Curve Exist? Contemporary Economic Issues in Asian Countries: Proceeding of CEIAC 2022, Volume 1, 357-368. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9669-6_22.
- Umoru, D., & Anyiwe, M. A. (2013). Dynamics of Inflation and Unemployment in a Vector Error Correction Model. Research on humanities and social sciences, 3, 20-29. From https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234673422.pdf.
- Wulandari, D., Utomo, S., Narmaditya, B., & Kamaludin, M. (2019). Nexus between Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Indonesia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 6, 269-275. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2019.vol6.no2.2.
The Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence in Vietnam
Abstract:
Purpose: This article analyzes the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Vietnam from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2025.
Design/methodology/approach: Research using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with long-run restrictions and an analysis of accumulated structural impulse response functions to examine the long-run interaction among shocks to inflation, actual unemployment, and the output gap. Dummy variables representing the Russia-Ukraine war and the Covid-19 pandemic were used to control for exogenous effects
Findings: The results showed that, in the short run, inflation is not only contemporaneous unaffected by unemployment, but also negatively impacts on unemployment. In the long run, unemployment has a negative effect on inflation, while the effect of inflation on unemployment does not persist.
Originality/value: The article's contribution provides empirical evidence that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment along the Phillips curve is only one-sided, with a negative impact of inflation on unemployment in the short run and a negative impact of unemployment on inflation in the long run.