Số 236 | Tháng 11/2025
Vai trò của chất lượng thể chế đối với phát triển bền vững: Bằng chứng từ cách tiếp cận Bayes phân cấp
Nguyễn Trần Xuân Linh
Tóm tắt:
Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Bài viết đánh giá vai trò của chất lượng thể chế (CLTC) đối với phát triển bền vững (PTBV) và sự khác biệt giữa các nhóm quốc gia.
Thiết kế nghiên cứu/phương pháp/tiếp cận: Nghiên cứu sử dụng mô hình Bayes phân cấp trên dữ liệu 72 quốc gia giai đoạn 2008–2022, kết hợp kiểm định độ vững bằng kỹ thuật Leave-One-Group-Out và so sánh với phương pháp tần suất.
Kết quả nghiên cứu chính: CLTC có tác động cùng chiều và nhất quán đến PTBV, rõ rệt nhất ở nhóm quốc gia kém phát triển.
Giá trị đóng góp mới: Nghiên cứu cung cấp bằng chứng thực nghiệm mới và khẳng định ưu thế của tiếp cận Bayes phân cấp trong phân tích hiệu ứng phân tầng, đồng thời nhấn mạnh vai trò then chốt từ cải thiện thể chế cho PTBV lâu dài.
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The Role of Institutional Quality in Sustainable Development: Evidence from a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach
Abstract:
Purpose: This study evaluates the role of institutional quality in sustainable development and examines differences across country groups.
Design/methodology/approach: A hierarchical Bayesian model is applied to panel data from 72 countries during 2008–2022. Robustness is tested using the Leave-One-Group-Out technique and results are compared with frequentist estimations.
Findings: Institutional quality exerts a positive and consistent impact on sustainable development, with stronger effects observed in less developed countries.
Originality/value: This study provides new empirical evidence and demonstrates the advantages of the hierarchical Bayesian approach in uncovering stratified effects, highlighting institutional improvement as a key policy priority for achieving long-term sustainable development.