Số 229 | Tháng 4/2025
Tác động của phân cấp tài khóa đến phát triển bền vững – Vai trò của đổi mới xanh và rủi ro địa chính trị
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hà, Lê Hùng Sơn, Trần Thị Kim Oanh
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu này sử dụng dữ liệu của 19 nước phát triển trong giai đoạn 2010–2022 để phân tích vai trò điều tiết của đổi mới xanh (GI) và rủi ro địa chính trị (RRĐCT) đến mối quan hệ giữa phân cấp tài khóa (PCTK) và phát triển bền vững (PTBV). Kết quả hồi quy bằng phương pháp Bayes cho thấy PCTK và GI là những yếu tố quan trọng thúc đẩy PTBV, trong khi RRĐCT có tác động ngược chiều. GI không chỉ có tác động trực tiếp đến PTBV mà còn đóng vai trò điều tiết, giúp tăng cường ảnh hưởng tích cực của PCTK đối với PTBV. Ngược lại, RRĐCT làm suy yếu tác động cùng chiều này. Ngoài ra, nghiên cứu còn cung cấp bằng chứng cho thấy tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT), tự do hóa thương mại và quy mô chính phủ có ảnh hưởng tích cực đến quá trình PTBV. Kết quả nghiên cứu đem lại một số hàm ý chính sách nhằm thúc đẩy PTBV tại các quốc gia trong mẫu nghiên cứu.
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Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on Sustainable Development – The Role of Green Innovation and Geopolitical Risks
Sustainable development
fiscal decentralization
green innovation
geopolitical risks
Bayesian regression.
Abstract:
The article utilizes data from 19 developed nations from 2010 to 2022 to investigate the moderating role of green innovation and geopolitical risk on the linkage between fiscal decentralization (FD) and sustainable development (SD). The Bayesian regression outcomes suggest that FD and green innovation promote SD, while geopolitical risk (GPR) has a negative impact. Green innovation not only directly affects SD but also plays a moderating role, helping to enhance the positive impact of FD on SD. On the contrary, GPR weakens this positive impact. In addition, the paper also provides evidence that economic growth, trade openness, and government size have a positive impact on the sustainable development process. The findings also provide some policy implications to promote SD in the studied countries.